Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes typical commissions and system fees)
|Strategies||Technical analysis, Market timing|
|System started||3/14/2009 (51 months ago)|
(Last login to Collective2: 5/23/13 22:29)
C2 Score: 999
Vendor has created 2 other systems. Show
The name of this system has been changed 3 times. Show
Live brokerage trade data is available for this system. Show broker data?
|Hypothetical Trading Results|
|4/30/13 10:29||BUY||514||GILD||GILEAD SCIENCES INC||49.48||5/2
|4/19/13 9:30||BUY||1,304||HPQ||HEWLETT-PACKARD CO||19.51||4/22
|4/18/13 14:12||BUY||65||AAPL||APPLE INC||391.03||4/19
|4/18/13 9:35||BUY||1,241||MS||MORGAN STANLEY||20.59||4/19
|4/18/13 9:30||BUY||471||EBAY||EBAY INC||53.59||4/19
|4/18/13 14:55||BUY||3,610||BSX||BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP||7.08||4/19
|4/18/13 10:06||BUY||2,262||BAC||BANK OF AMERICA CORP||11.30||4/19
|4/17/13 9:35||BUY||897||FCX||FREEPORT-MCMORAN C & G||28.51||4/18
|4/15/13 15:37||BUY||1,348||CHK||CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP||18.97||4/16
|4/15/13 10:49||BUY||1,418||CLF||CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES||18.02||4/16
|4/15/13 9:30||BUY||820||FCX||FREEPORT-MCMORAN C & G||30.10||4/16
|4/3/13 13:23||BUY||1,331||CHK||CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP||19.21||4/4
|3/20/13 9:32||BUY||1,240||CHK||CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP||20.52||3/21
|3/5/13 10:48||BUY||1,662||JCP||J.C. PENNEY CO INC||15.38||3/7
|2/26/13 10:33||BUY||1,166||MS||MORGAN STANLEY||21.81||2/27
|Chance of 50% account loss||0.0%|
|Chance of 100% account loss||0.0%|
|Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)||0.17|
|Average P/L per unit traded||$0.25|
|Sum of dividends and cash expir. in model account||$1,930|
There are several excellent long only stock system on C2 which are based on quantitative statistical analysis, in fact, most of them have a higher return since March 09 when this incredible bull market started. I got attracted to this one because of the low drawdown and my hunch that it will also perform well in a bear market. So far during this correction I have not been disappointed.
Rainier todate has shown a great deal of dicipline in execution. Entry and exit points are well defined and easily traded.
What to Expect
The system will generate orders every evening after the market closes. There will be far more orders generated when the market is weak than when it is strong. Only a fraction of the orders will be filled.
When a position is opened, you will receive a sell at limit order or profit target for the next day. The vast majority of trades will last 1 or 2 days. If the position is still open on the third day, it will be closed with a market order. Rainier does not "average down" or add to losing positions.
I strongly recommend that you don't allocate over 12% of your account to a single position. Doing so can increase risk to an unacceptable level. Rainier was designed to use a maximum of 12% position sizing, but you can use less if you want. Smaller position sizes will reduce both profits and drawdowns, but this would be appropriate for many risk-averse individuals. At any rate open 16 positions and then stop buying.
You can size your positions as a percentage of Rainier's position size. The formula is X% = YA / (RE * 2) * 100. YA is Your Account (the amount you're allocating to Rainier), RE is Rainier's Equity (you multiply it by two because it uses 2:1 margin). For example if you allocate $50,000 to trading the system and Rainier's equity is $180,000 the formula would be X% = 50,000 / (180,000 * 2) * 100 = 13.9%.
The use of margin increases both profits and drawdowns. Market exposure can vary from 0% to about 192%. Historically, with 12% position sizing, the average market exposure has been under 25%. If you don't want to use margin, just use 6% for position sizing.
- This System Description text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that this text above is an accurate system description. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.