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Rainier




Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes typical commissions and system fees)

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2009              +6.3%+3.6%+1.4%+1.6%+6.7%+0.9%+3.3%+5.9%+3.5%+0.6%
2010(3.5%)+6.1%+1.6%+2.7%+18.6%(1.5%)+2.7%(0.3%)(0.7%)+2.1%+2.4%  -  
2011+0.7%(0.7%)+7.5%+2.2%(3.2%)+1.8%+0.2%(16.2%)(8.7%)+5.6%+2.9%+1.6%
2012+0.1%+1.1%(3.8%)+3.7%+2.2%(0.7%)+0.7%  -  +2.3%+0.8%+2.3%(0.2%)
2013  -  +0.5%(0.3%)(0.2%)+2.0%                                          
There is a substantial risk of loss when trading futures, forex, stocks, or options. Hide this

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Show chart:  Standard  |  Monte Carlo
Technical Analysis:  Moving Average daysX

Instruments Stocks
Strategies Technical analysis, Market timing
System started 3/14/2009 (51 months ago)
System developer Cliff Fiess
(Last login to Collective2: 5/23/13 22:29)
C2 Score: 999

Vendor has created 2 other systems. Show
The name of this system has been changed 3 times. Show



Recently Closed Trades

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Live brokerage trade data is available for this system. Show broker data?

Hypothetical Trading Results
Opened ETB/S#Symbol PriceClosedPriceRiskP/L
4/30/13 10:29 BUY 514 GILD GILEAD SCIENCES INC 49.48 5/2
9:30
52.60 Low $1,594
4/19/13 9:30 BUY 1,304 HPQ HEWLETT-PACKARD CO 19.51 4/22
9:30
19.66 Low $168
4/18/13 14:12 BUY 65 AAPL APPLE INC 391.03 4/19
10:00
392.56 Low $97
4/18/13 9:35 BUY 1,241 MS MORGAN STANLEY 20.59 4/19
9:32
20.40 Low ($261)
4/18/13 9:30 BUY 471 EBAY EBAY INC 53.59 4/19
9:30
52.91 Low ($329)
4/18/13 14:55 BUY 3,610 BSX BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP 7.08 4/19
9:30
7.11 Low $36
4/18/13 10:06 BUY 2,262 BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP 11.30 4/19
9:30
11.51 Low $430
4/17/13 9:35 BUY 897 FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN C & G 28.51 4/18
11:14
28.04 Low ($440)
4/15/13 15:37 BUY 1,348 CHK CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP 18.97 4/16
9:30
19.12 Low $175
4/15/13 10:49 BUY 1,418 CLF CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES 18.02 4/16
9:30
17.78 Low ($368)
4/15/13 9:30 BUY 820 FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN C & G 30.10 4/16
9:30
29.69 Low ($352)
4/3/13 13:23 BUY 1,331 CHK CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP 19.21 4/4
9:30
19.21 Low ($27)
3/20/13 9:32 BUY 1,240 CHK CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP 20.52 3/21
9:53
20.91 n/a $459
3/5/13 10:48 BUY 1,662 JCP J.C. PENNEY CO INC 15.38 3/7
9:30
14.78 Low ($1,030)
2/26/13 10:33 BUY 1,166 MS MORGAN STANLEY 21.81 2/27
9:35
22.47 Low $747

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Statistics

Analytics  
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades1,009
# Profitable642 (63.6%)
# months tracked51
Profitable months35 (68.6%)
Avg trade duration1.6 days
Annual return (compounded)20.2%
Average win$501
Average loss$565
Profit factor1.6:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)29.61%
drawdown periodAug 19, 2011 to Oct 04, 2011
Correlation w/ S&P0.244
Sharpe ratio1.285
Keep after worst-case slippage 99.5%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss36.5%
Chance of 20% account loss14.5%
Chance of 30% account loss4.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)0.17
Average P/L per unit traded$0.25
Sum of dividends and cash expir. in model account$1,930


Reviews


 
March 16, 2012 from AutoTrader

 
Feb 8, 2010 from AutoTrader

There are several excellent long only stock system on C2 which are based on quantitative statistical analysis, in fact, most of them have a higher return since March 09 when this incredible bull market started. I got attracted to this one because of the low drawdown and my hunch that it will also perform well in a bear market. So far during this correction I have not been disappointed.

 
Dec 9, 2009 from Subscriber

Rainier todate has shown a great deal of dicipline in execution. Entry and exit points are well defined and easily traded.

System Description

I have finally decided to make a change in Rainier. Starting on Monday, October 22, 2012, the watchlist will change to the most liquid stocks in the S&P 500.

What to Expect
The system will generate orders every evening after the market closes. There will be far more orders generated when the market is weak than when it is strong. Only a fraction of the orders will be filled.

Position Management
When a position is opened, you will receive a sell at limit order or profit target for the next day. The vast majority of trades will last 1 or 2 days. If the position is still open on the third day, it will be closed with a market order. Rainier does not "average down" or add to losing positions.

I strongly recommend that you don't allocate over 12% of your account to a single position. Doing so can increase risk to an unacceptable level. Rainier was designed to use a maximum of 12% position sizing, but you can use less if you want. Smaller position sizes will reduce both profits and drawdowns, but this would be appropriate for many risk-averse individuals. At any rate open 16 positions and then stop buying.

You can size your positions as a percentage of Rainier's position size. The formula is X% = YA / (RE * 2) * 100. YA is Your Account (the amount you're allocating to Rainier), RE is Rainier's Equity (you multiply it by two because it uses 2:1 margin). For example if you allocate $50,000 to trading the system and Rainier's equity is $180,000 the formula would be X% = 50,000 / (180,000 * 2) * 100 = 13.9%.

Margin
The use of margin increases both profits and drawdowns. Market exposure can vary from 0% to about 192%. Historically, with 12% position sizing, the average market exposure has been under 25%. If you don't want to use margin, just use 6% for position sizing.

- This System Description text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that this text above is an accurate system description. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Overview

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Paid Subscribers
This strategy has current paid subscribers.
Rainier is a mechanical system that buys highly liquid undervalued stocks and usually sells them one to two days later.
read more...

- This text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified the Overview text above. Remember there is a substantial risk of loss in trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Model Account Status

Started$100,000
Buy Power$178,221
Cash$175,524
Equity$2,697
Cumulative $*$116,675
Dividends Itemized
Total System Equity$216,675
Margined$0
Open P/L$2,697


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